Tag Archives: economy

Cronicles of a European crisis

It’s been a tough 2011 for Europe and it’s going to get tougher. The role of Finland in this whole mess is deeply contested, and is a result of the changes in Parliament after the elections last spring.  I personally think Finnish politicians are too smug (see Halla-Aho’s Greece comments).  They treat other countries in the EU like a poor relation, but they seem to forget that Finland might be on the receiving end of EU aid sooner than we would like.  While the current budget deficit is quite manageable, Finland has the fastest-aging population in Europe.This will have a huge impact in social services and pensions, so I would hope for a return to traditional Finnish caution from the current brashness.

If I put my Mexican hat on, it is very ironic to see developed countries not following their own rules and recommendations for economic recovery (see cartoon in Spanish).  I guess the IMF’s medicine is too bitter when you try it yourself.

Below you can see some pictures I’ve taken that show the discontent from the general public in different parts of the continent.

Protests

Protests in Corinth.

Austerity protests in Athens

Traffic rerouted due to the austerity protests in Athens.

Strong opinion

Strong opinions in the London tube.

Somebody tell me how much they make with my money

Madrid. "Somebody tell me how much they make with my money" / "You should understand what they say".

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Recommended book: The Ascent of Money

This is a very interesting book by Niall Ferguson that has already been reviewed here and here. It also has a companion TV documentary.

Behind each great historical phenomenon there lies a financial secret, and this book sets out to illuminate the most important of these. For example, the Renaissance created such a boom in the market for art and architecture because Italian bankers like the Medici made fortunes by applying Oriental mathematics to money. The Dutch Republic prevailed over the Hapsburg Empire because having the world’s first modern stock market was financially preferable to having the world’s biggest silver mine. The problems of the French monarchy could not be resolved without a revolution because a convicted Scots murderer had wrecked the French financial system by unleashing the first stock market bubble and bust.

This should be required reading or viewing for everybody who handles money every day i.e. for all of us. For good or ill our livelihood depends on understanding the financial events around us but in order to graduate from high school you need to understand science, biology and language but not how to calculate compound interest. Money, as they say, is portable power. Get something to eat and watch the full TV documentary below (also divided by episodes in the PBS website).

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La ciudad (y el país) siguen creciendo

Mexico City landscape

Con todo y las terribles noticias que recibimos en materia de seguridad día a día, la economía mexicana sigue creciendo (un3.5% el año pasado).  Hay signos de eso donde quiera que lo vea uno: obra pública (seguramente con fines electorales, pero aún así una inversión en infraestructura), centros comerciales llenos y un sector turístico en crecimiento gracias a la demanda nacional y extranjera.

El país podría desarrollarse mucho más si se pasara la reforma económica y se aliviara la situación de seguridad, pero el punto es que con aún con los encabezados que lee uno a diario, el país sin embargo se mueve.

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A world without airplanes

As many have experienced this past week, I don’t think that it would be as rosy as Mr. Alain de Botton remarks. Our world is humongously interconnected as you can see in the TED talk below (from TEDx Volcano, an impromptu event created by speakers stranded in London due to the recent contingency).

Severing links, however temporarily, is extremely painful in both personal and economic terms. You can ask the 7 million stranded passengers for their opinions if you think otherwise.  Many of them have been using social media tools to somehow cope with the situation, as Teemu Arina explains.

The past few days have looked quite a bit like a teaser of what a world without oil would be.  Hopefully it serves as a wake-up call to us all.

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500 Euros & the mafia

Too much money: 500 Euro!

Recently read an article in a Mexican business magazine where they mention that the 500 euro bill is the darling of the Italian mafia.  The simple reason is that while transporting a million dollars in 100 dollar bills cash would need a portfolio or bag weighing up to 10 kg (as previously seen in Hollywood), a million dollars in 500 euro bills would be much more easily concealed and weigh less than 2 kg. No wonder they are starting to find these in seizures in Mexico, Costa Rica and Russia.

I mean, I have never seen even the 100 Euro bill being used normally in the street, much less the 200 or 500.  Given that the larger the denomination the larger the bill, 500 Euro are pretty much a purple papyrus :P

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Recommended book: Why your world is about to get a whole lot smaller

You might have heard of peak oil, the idea explaining the point in time when we have reached the maximum amount of oil produced, after which starts a decline that affects the world as we know it (and yes, I’m using this phrase on purpose).  Jeff Rubin, a Canadian economist, took the issue head-on in this book, explaining not only why in his view the current economic crisis is at its source one huge oil price shock, but also how will the world economy change once oil is not so plentiful, more expensive and there are more economies hungry for it.

Basically, what he predicts is an end to the current version of globalisation, where you have distributed value chains, cheap travel and products from all over the world at your doorstep.  I don’t know about you, but even if I live more or less ecologically, use renewable energy where possible and don’t have a car, such a future would wreak havoc with my lifestyle as it would be impossible for me to find the food I want and be able to visit my family over the holidays.  The subtitle of this blog is “musings from a child of globalisation” after all, isn’t it?

I think it is time to sweep this issue under the rug every time it is brought up and start thinking about what kind of innovations are needed.  Who’s with me?

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The “Mexicanisation” of the Mexican middle class

I’ve mentioned it before (1,2) how the middle class in Mexico seems to to have been slowly growing and to start becoming more “brown”.  While I don’t know if this trend is still continuing given the current drastic contraction of the Mexican economy, I did find some anecdotical evidence of this trend while observing the local tourists around me in my recent trip to Mexico, both those coming from recent holidays in Europe and those spending their holidays in the country.

If true, that is definitely one welcome development.

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Stimulating domestic tourism in Mexico


Vive México campaign

Originally uploaded by Chiva Congelado

One thing that really caught my attention during our last trip in Mexico is the huge marketing campaigns to stimulate domestic tourism. There were ads not only talking about Mexico in general but also about specific destinations within the country (paid for by local tourism councils).

With the dry-up of foreign tourism due to the publicity given to several recent events, it’s not a surprise they’re turning to the people already living there first. I didn’t see anything out of the ordinary at all, and enjoyed my trip immensely. Given the importance of the tourism industry to the economy, I really hope people start coming back, as the country has a lot to offer to the visitor.

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The new capitalism?

Found this very interesting document on the reasons of the economic downturn and the ways forward at Robert Peston’s blog at the Beeb.

I find especially interesting his thought that global markets need global rules.

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The lipstick economic index

Reading a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit on the outlook for this year, I found out that lipstick sales can be a very reliable economic indicator.  As ridiculous at it may sound, theory goes that if lipstick is selling briskly, the economy is not doing well, as women are substituting other purchases with it.

I’ve heard of other unorthodox economic indicators, but this one is the weirdest.

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