- The Chinese economy is still expected to grow 7-8% this year
- Islamic banking was relatively untouched by the global turmoil as it’s very risk averse
- The Japanese economy has contracted fiercely as its exports have fallen to historic lows
- U.S. skilled immigrants are going back to China & India
- Many Eastern European economies are in trouble and with them their Western European (mostly Austrian & Swedish) investors
- Latin America will mostly just suffer a slowdown, the Mexican economy is expected to contract this year due to its high exposure to U.S. economic cycles
- Some emerging economies are more vulnerable than others
What does this mean? What we are seeing is the shift of economic power from the United States & Europe to markets elsewhere, and especially China, India and parts of the Middle East are in good shape to reap the rewards. However, since the system is built around the countries of the G7 with the US as the main motor of worldwide consumption, co-operation between all countries is needed, or else the rise of protectionism will amplify the current situation.
I wouldn’t be surprised if in case the crisis lasts long (hopefully not) China ends up bailing the US so that its own economy can keep on growing…
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